AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): As the US midterm elections approach, the political options of "Donald Trump," the President of the United States, both domestically and in foreign policy, are becoming more limited day by day. The US President is trying to repair his political capital, which is being eroded more and more every day, and to increase his party's chances of winning in the election that will be held in about two weeks.
According to a report by the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, these developments come as the Democratic camp continues to lead the Republicans in national polls. The latest NBC News poll, published on Saturday and whose data was collected between September and October, shows that 55 percent of registered voters intend to vote for Democratic Party candidates in their districts.
Although the majority of poll participants emphasized that the economy is the most important issue for them, 43 percent had a positive view of the Democrats. While only 37 percent expressed a similar view about the Republican Party. In contrast, 63 percent of respondents had a negative view of the Republicans.
Also, more than 70 percent of the nearly 20,000 poll participants believe their country is moving in the wrong direction. A figure unprecedented since the beginning of Trump's second presidential term. This rate equals the proportion of people who believe the US President's policies harm this country most of the time. In contrast, only 29 percent believe that America is moving in the right direction.
Declining Public Trust in Trump; From Economic Promises to Rising Living Costs
The decline in public trust in Trump, even among Republicans, occurs as the US President has failed to fulfill a number of his campaign promises, especially the promise to lower prices. At the same time, the living conditions of the American people continue to deteriorate. The prices of essential goods, including fuel products and food, have increased, and housing rents, loan costs, credit card debt, and interest rates have also risen.
Analysts attribute these negative indicators to 6 of Trump's policies, including customs tariffs, the war against Iran, immigration restrictions, tax cuts, and increased government spending.
In such circumstances, the results of the Pew Research Center survey are not very surprising. According to this survey, the level of public satisfaction of Americans with their country's president has decreased to 30 percent. Also, Trump's support level among the Republican Party base has fallen from 65 percent at the beginning of his second presidential term to 39 percent.
According to these same surveys, 60 percent of Americans accuse Trump of using the presidency to increase his own wealth instead of paying attention to the public interest and resolving the growing livelihood and economic crises.
The Consequences of Trump's Policies for Republicans
The competition between Republicans and Democrats for seats in the two chambers of the US Congress has intensified. In the meantime, Senate races in the states of "Michigan," "Maine," "Ohio," "North Carolina," "Iowa," and "Georgia" are of particular importance.
In addition, this year gubernatorial elections will be held in 39 of the 50 US states. The total cost of political advertising in these races has so far reached about 3.8 billion dollars. A figure that includes 366 million dollars in financial assistance from Elon Musk. This statistic was published by the company "AdImpact," which monitors political advertising activities.
In the midst of these races, the Democrats appear to be benefiting from the Republicans' shaky political situation in a number of this party's traditional strongholds, including the states of "Nebraska," "Texas," and "Georgia." This situation has taken shape as farmers and truck drivers in these states face a wave of inflation and rising fuel, energy, and borrowing costs.
For example, polls in Texas indicate the lead of "Gina Hinojosa," the Democratic candidate, in the race for the governorship of this state against "Greg Abbott," the current governor and Republican candidate. This lead has been reported while Hinojosa is behind her rival in terms of the amount of financial aid collected for her campaign.
It is worth noting that since 1994, no Democratic candidate has succeeded in winning the Texas gubernatorial election.
Texas; A Close Race in the Republicans' Traditional State
Statistics published in late September of this year also indicated the lead of "James Talarico," the Democratic candidate for the US Senate from Texas, against "Ken Paxton," the state's attorney general and his Republican rival. According to these statistics, Talarico was ahead of his rival by a margin of five percentage points.
Also, the second poll by the Texas Public Opinion Research Institute about this electoral race showed that Talarico, whose campaign has succeeded in collecting more than 70 million dollars in financial aid, enjoys the support of 49 percent of voters. In contrast, support for Paxton reaches 44 percent.
Talarico enjoys greater support, especially among young people, college-educated independent voters, as well as African Americans and Latinos. The main reasons for this support are cited as his defense of the people and his clean reputation.
This situation comes as Trump had previously described Paxton as an ugly person, although he has asked his supporters to vote for him.
Paxton, known for supporting Trump's efforts to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election, has previously faced accusations of financial fraud. His opponents also in 2023, for similar reasons, succeeded in paving the way for his removal from the Texas House of Representatives. A state that has historically been loyal to Republicans and more than 32 percent of whose population consists of people of Latino descent.
Georgia; Disagreement Over the Gaza and Iran Wars
Meanwhile, electoral races for the US Senate seat from Georgia continue. The candidates in this race have different positions on issues including the Gaza and Iran wars.
However, this race is classified among the safe or almost certain races in favor of the Democrats. Especially since "Jon Ossoff," the Democratic senator, has pulled ahead of "Mike Collins," his Republican rival and congressman, by a margin of 13 percentage points.
Collins has been accused of having ties to racist right-wing organizations, including the Ku Klux Klan.
Trump's Effort to Cover Up Failures; From Electoral Attacks to the Russia Deal
Amid the intensification of these races, Trump in recent weeks has tried to overshadow his failures during his presidency, both domestically and in foreign policy.
On the domestic front, he has continued his racist attacks against Democratic candidates of Arab and Islamic descent. Among these individuals is "Abdulrahman El-Sayed," known as "Abdul," the candidate for the US Senate from the state of "Michigan," whom Trump has accused of membership in the Muslim Brotherhood and has called this group a global terrorist organization.
On the foreign policy front as well, Trump has tried to create the impression among American voters that the resolution of the energy crisis is near. In practice, he has also tried to curb the continuous rise in energy prices by reaching an understanding with Russia to supply part of America's fuel needs.
According to this understanding, Russia is to export certain quantities of diesel to America and in return be exempted from part of the sanctions package.
However, this agreement has sparked criticisms that are not limited to the Democrats and have even spread within the Republican camp. Critics believe this understanding circumvents the strict Graham law against Russia and its president. A law that has imposed severe restrictions against Moscow. They also emphasize that confronting Russia is among the issues that enjoy shared priority and importance between the two American parties.
In this context, "Thom Tillis," a Republican senator from North Carolina, described the new Russia-America agreement as going beyond the boundaries of irresponsibility.
He said that if Trump really wants to reduce energy prices, he should end the war with Iran, not serve Vladimir Putin.
"Chuck Schumer," a Democratic senator from New York, also reacted to Trump's decision, saying, "By providing support that keeps the Russian economy alive, Trump's deal with the devil gets worse every day."
Scenarios Ahead; What Are the Consequences of the Democrats' Return to Congress?
Observers believe the election results will, on the one hand, determine the current Republican administration's ability to advance its legislative agenda in the second half of Trump's presidential term. Including its ability to implement further tax cuts, expand defense spending, and limit social support networks in continuing to implement the plan known as the "Big and Beautiful Law."
On the other hand, the election results will determine to what extent the Democrats can take back the political initiative from the Republicans and gain the majority in one or both chambers of Congress. Especially in the Senate, which is responsible for confirming judicial appointments, ministers, and ambassadors.
The Democrats appear to try, in the event of victory, to postpone Trump's appointments in federal courts, including the US Supreme Court, until after the 2028 elections.
Also, the possibility of starting investigations into unprecedented levels of corruption related to Trump and his close associates cannot be ruled out. "Chuck Schumer," the Democratic minority leader in the Senate, has previously made such a promise.
Schumer has once again emphasized that his party is committed to striving to reduce the costs of healthcare, food, housing, energy, and other living expenses of the American people.
Concern About the Trump Administration's Intervention and the Possibility of a Legal Battle After the Election
Until the election results are announced, observers express concern about the possibility of the Trump administration's intervention in the electoral process as well as in the phase after the end of voting.
This concern arises especially from the fact that the current US President has repeatedly questioned the health and credibility of the elections. This is while no evidence has been presented to prove his claims.
Democratic lawmakers are already preparing themselves to face such a possibility. Meanwhile, it is predicted that after the November 3 electoral events, a legal battle will also follow.
**************
End/ 345E
